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SMERCONISH: “No doubt, DeSantis is studying the Obama and Christie playbooks in trying to figure out which model matches his current situation. And DeSantis’ calculus is contemplated by Trump. Early polling showing DeSantis easily beats Trump. DeSantis leads by 13 percentage point in Iowa. 15 points New Hampshire, 26 points in Florida, 20 points in Georgia but that’s head to head with Trump. And there’s no guarantee that Trump gets DeSantis alone one-on-one. Trump was able to win because he had a relatively small but loyal group of supporters and very crowded debate stage. I remember being at the reagan library for the second GOP debate of the 2016 cycle, there were 15 candidates. So many on that debate stage, that it had to be split in two. The more the merrier for Donald Trump but not for Ron DeSantis. As he decides whether to run for president in 2024, DeSantis has to be worried more than just the size of the field. The only venue for a fight with Donald Trump is a steel cage. DeSantis might win the battle and lose the war. There’s no guarantee that if you beat Trump, he embraces you. Trump is for Trump. Not for a party, not for ideology. It’s hard to envision DeSantis vanquishing Trump but still; gaining his endorsement thereafter. Remember, Trump is the guy who crashed presidential protocol and refuses to attend Joe Biden’s inauguration. He relishes burning down the house. Just and Georgia’s Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. So DeSantis has to consider that he could enter the race, get Trump on the small field, and beat him, big ifs. Only to have Trump trash him after the nomination is settled, and tank the general election to the benefit of Democrats. Maybe the better course is to sit out and wait for another cycle or maybe he should call Chris ChristIe.”