EXCERPT:
BERNSTEIN: "It’s not doing as well as it was before Trump took office, and certainly before the trade war. Probably the best overall measure of how the economy is doing is GDP growth, and that was trending north of 2%. Now it’s around 1% for the first half of the year. The job market is still in pretty good shape. We heard that from Chair Powell this week. But at the same time, we’re seeing some cracks. Employers have really slowed the rate of hiring. They haven’t engaged in layoffs yet. You can’t have a recession without layoffs. In fact, I don’t see a recession coming, at least in the next 6 to 12 months. What I do see is slower growth and higher prices, aka stagflation. That’s tough for American consumers, it’s tough for the Federal Reserve, because those forces go in the opposite directions for them. And I think it's largely a symptom of this really foundationally misguided trade war."